Jan 13, 2023
Conab Lowers 2022/23 Soybean and Corn Estimates
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their January Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimates for both the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean and corn production. The 2022/23 soybean estimate was lowered 760,000 tons to 152.71 million tons. The 2022/23 corn estimate was lowered 760,000 tons to 125.06 million tons.
The 2022/23 Brazilian soybean acreage is now estimated at 43.45 million hectares (107.32 million acres), which is up 50,000 hectares from the prior month. The Brazilian soybean acreage is up 4.7% compared to 2021/22.
Brazil's soybean yields were trimmed slightly in January to 3,514 kg/ha (52.3 bu/ac). This makes the fourth month in a row that the soybean yield was lowered. The lower soybean production was attributed to irregular rainfall in southern Brazil especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul where hot and dry weather has resulted in poor plant populations and diminished plant growth. There are also concerns for the soybean crop in western Parana and western Santa Catarina where December rainfall was below normal.
Brazil has three corn crops, the first corn crop, the safrinha corn crop, and the third corn crop which is planted in northeastern Brazil. Conab lowered their estimate of the first corn crop, but the estimates for the safrinha and third corn crops were left unchanged.
The acreage for Brazil's first corn crop was trimmed 20,000 hectares to 4.40 million (10.86 million acres), which is now down 3.3% compared to the previous year as farmers opted to plant more soybeans. The yield of the first corn crop was lowered to 6,012 kg/ha (95.5 bu/ac), which was down 2.2 bushels from the prior month. The production estimate for the first corn crop was lowered 760,000 tons to 26.46 million. The problem for the first corn crop is hot and dry conditions especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul which has the largest first crop corn acreage of any state in Brazil.
The safrinha corn production was left unchanged at 96.27 million tons and the third corn crop estimate was left unchanged at 2.33 million tons. Conab will issue their first estimate of the safrinha corn crop based on field observations in their February Crop Report.
Brazil's first corn crop now represents 21% of Brazil's total corn production while the safrinha crop represents 77% of the total and the third corn crop represents 1.8% of the total.