Mar 15, 2023
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Estimates Continue to Decline
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The question in Argentina is - how low can it go? The high temperatures of the last 10-15 days were very detrimental to the crops in Argentina. For the early planted soybeans that were filling pods or approaching maturity, the high temperatures and lack of moisture essentially ended the growing season.
In the core production areas, the early soybean yields are expected to be down as much as 50% although the later planted soybeans may do better in areas where the rainfall was more plentiful. It is probably safe to say that the nationwide soybean yield will be down 25% or more. The current soybean harvest is probably less than 1%.
Not only are the soybean yields going to be very low, the number of abandoned hectares is going to be very high. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimated last week that there may be as much as 2.6 million hectares of soybeans abandoned (6.4 million acres), which would be a record amount and equal to approximately 15-16% of the planted acreage, depending on how much was originally planted. This would be three times more than last year and twice as much as the last drought in 2017/18.
If we assume that farmers planted 16.2 million hectares of soybeans in 2022/23 and 2.6 million hectares will be abandoned, that would leave a harvested area of 13.6 million. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is currently estimating that the 2022/23 soybean yield will be 25% below the five-year average of 2,790 kg/ha (41.5 bu/ac). That would equate to approximately 2,090 kg/ha (31.1 bu/ac). Therefore 13.6 mha x 2090 kg/ha = 28.4 million tons.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their 2022/23 Argentina soybean estimate 4.5 million tons last week to 29.0 million. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their Argentina soybean estimate 7.5 million tons to 27.0 million. In the March WASDE Report, the USDA lowered the 2022/23 Argentina soybean estimate 8.0 million tons to 33.0 million.
The 2022/23 soybeans in Argentina were rated 71% poor/very poor, 27% fair, and 2% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is unchanged from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 75% short/very short and 25% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 1 point from the prior week.
Early planted soybeans in Argentina are approximately 45% filling pods and 3% mature with less than 1% harvested. Late planted soybeans are about 56% setting pods.
Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for March 9, 2023.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Feb. 2, 2023 | 46 (20) | 12 (38) | 53 (36) | 47 (64) |
| Feb. 9, 2023 | 48 (19) | 13 (40) | 61 (33) | 39 (67) |
| Feb. 16, 2023 | 56 (23) | 9 (35) | 67 (36) | 33 (64) |
| Feb. 23, 2023 | 60 (25) | 3 (26) | 73 (41) | 29 (59) |
| Mar. 2, 2023 | 67 (23) | 2 (27) | 74 (32) | 26 (37) |
| Mar. 9, 2023 | 71 (20) | 2 (31) | 75 (24) | 25 (74) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages