Jan 30, 2024
2023/24 Argentina Soy 50% Blooming, Hot and Dry Weather Worries
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Argentina experienced dry weather last week, leading to declining soil moisture, especially in Buenos Aires. The forecast for this week is calling for generally dry weather in Argentina with temperatures as high as the low 100's °F. The conditions will lead to moisture stress especially for the soybeans that are already setting and filling pods.
The fact that hot and dry weather is starting to develop just as the crop enters reproduction is a worrisome development. One week of hot and dry weather is not a big concern. Two weeks or more is a concern especially if the temperatures are elevated. Therefore, the soybean estimate was left unchanged this week while we wait to see how the weather develops. Up until this week, I had a neutral to higher bias, but that has now changed to a neutral bias. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent declined 11% to 44% last week and it should decline more this week.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased the 2023/24 soybean estimate last week by 0.5 million tons to 52.5 million. They increased the soybean acreage by 200,000 hectares to 17.3 million (42.7 million acres). They indicated that future precipitation will be needed, especially during reproduction, to maintain the current production estimate.
The soybeans in Argentina were rated 8% poor/very poor, 48% fair, and 44% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage declined 11% from the previous week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 9% short/very short, 90% favorable/optimum, and 1% saturated. The favorable/optimum percentage was unchanged from the prior week. Soybeans are 98.24% planted with 48% blooming and 14% setting pods as of late last week. Below is the soybean rating from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Dec. 21, 2023 | 3 (4) | 37 (73) | 6 (42) | 91 (58) |
| Dec. 28, 2023 | 3 (30) | 40 (10) | 7 (45) | 91 (55) |
| Jan. 3, 2024 | 2 (40) | 42 (7) | 9 (46) | 90 (54) |
| Jan. 10, 2024 | 3 (58) | 51 (4) | 6 (67) | 92 (33) |
| Jan. 17, 2024 | 2 (56) | 55 (4) | 7 (69) | 90 (31) |
| Jan. 24, 2024 | 8 (53) | 44 (7) | 9 (64) | 90 (36) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages