Feb 09, 2024
Conab Lowers Brazil's 2023/24 Soy 5.86 mt, Corn Lowered 3.91 mt
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
In their February Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2023/24 Brazil soybean crop by 5.86 million tons to 149.4 million, which is a reduction of 3.7% from their January estimate. For the 2023/24 Brazil corn production, they lowered their estimate 3.91 million tons to 113.69, which is a reduction of 3.3% compared to January.
For the Brazilian soybean crop, the acreage, yield, and production estimates were all lower compared to January. The 2023/24 soybean acreage was lowered 171,000 hectares from January to 45.088 million (111.3 million acres). Brazil's soybean yield is now estimated at 3,314 kg/ha (49.3 bu/ac), which is down 1.8 bu/ac from January. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production at 149.4 million tons is down 5.2 million tons (3.4%) from the 154.6 million tons in 2022/23.
This is the first monthly estimate for corn based on ground observations of the safrinha corn crop. For the Brazilian corn crop, the acreage, yield, and production were all lower compared to January. There had been wide speculation that the safrinha corn acreage would decline due to delayed planting and low corn prices. That speculation was confirmed in Conab's report.
The 2023/24 safrinha corn acreage is now estimated at 15.879 million hectares (39.2 million acres), which is down 531,000 from January (3.2%) and down 1.31 million from last year (7.6%). The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,548 kg/ha (88.2 bu/ac), which is down 6.8% from last year. The safrinha corn production is estimated at 88.09 million tons, which is down 3.13 million from January (3.4%) and down 14.2 million from last year (13.9%).
Brazil's first corn crop acreage was lowered 37,000 hectares to 3.93 million (9.7 million acres) and the yield is estimated at 6,004 kg/ha (95.4 bu/ac), which is down 2.2 bu/ac from January. The first crop corn production is estimated at 23.6 million tons, which is down 0.78 million from January. Brazil's third corn crop is estimated at 1.99 million tons, which is essentially unchanged from January.
Brazil's 2023/24 corn production at 113.6 million tons, is down 18.2 million tons (13.8%) from the 131.8 million produced in 2022/23.
The safrinha corn crop now represents 77.4% of Brazil's total corn production with the first corn crop at 20.7% and the third corn crop at 1.7%.