Mar 13, 2024

Conab Lowers Soy 2.55 mt to 146.8, Corn Lowered 0.9 mt to 112.7

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their March Crop Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2023/24 Brazil soybean crop by 2.55 million tons to 146.85 million. For corn, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate by 0.94 million tons to 112.75 million.

Brazil's soybean acreage is now estimated at 45.17 million hectares (111.5 million acres), which is up nearly 90,000 hectares from last month and up 2.5% from the 2022/23 growing season. The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,251 kg/ha (48.4 bu/ac), which is down 0.93 bu/ac from last month. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production of 146.85 million tons is down 5% from last year or 7.7 million tons.

Brazil's lower corn estimate was due mainly to a lower safrinha corn estimate. The safrinha corn acreage was lowered 129,000 hectares to 15.75 million (37.8 million acres). Due to low corn prices, Brazilian farmers opted to plant other crops such as grain sorghum, cotton, sunflowers, sesame, and cover crops instead of safrinha corn. The safrinha corn acreage is now down 8.3% compared to last year.

Safrinha corn yields are estimated at 5,543 kg/ha (88.1 bu/ac) and the safrinha corn production is estimated at 87.34 million tons, which is down 0.7 million from last month. The safrinha corn production is now down 14.7% or 15.02 million tons compared to last year.

Brazil's first corn crop production was trimmed 0.19 million tons to 23.41 million. Brazil's third corn crop production was left unchanged at 1.99 million tons. The safrinha crop now represents 77.4% of Brazil's total corn production with the first crop representing 20.7% and the third crop representing 1.7% of the total.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn crop is now down 19.14 million tons or 14.5% compared to the 131.89 million tons produced in 2022/23.