Apr 03, 2024

2023/24 Brazil Soybeans 74% Harvested vs. 76% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rain during late February and early March favored the late planted soybeans in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and in the northeastern states of Bahia, Tocantins, Maranhao, and Piaui. Recent temperatures in south-central Brazil have been above normal with reading up to 35°C (95°F). Rainfall this week will favor far northern and far southern Brazil with dryer weather in south-central Brazil.

The 2023/24 soybeans in Brazil were 74% harvested as of late last week compared to 69% last year and 76% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. Rainfall in the northern areas slowed the harvest pace. The rainfall diminished in Rio Grande do Sul last week allowing for the harvest pace to pick up, but the state will need more rainfall for the late planted soybeans that are currently filling pods.

Northeastern Brazil - This is one of the last areas where soybeans need to be harvested, but recent rains have slowed the harvest and there are localized concerns about poor seed quality.

Rio Grande do Sul - Soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 8% harvested as of late last week and the soybeans in the state are 42% mature according to Emater. Farmers are giving priority to harvesting their soybeans, so the harvest pace is expected to increase this week.

Agroconsult increases soybean estimate - The consulting firm Agrocosult increased their 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate last week by 4.3 million tons to 156.5 million. They increased the soybean acreage 753,000 hectares (1.85 mac) from their last estimate to 46.4 million hectares (114.6 million acres). They estimated the nationwide soybean yield at 50.2 bu/ac.

Conab is estimating the acreage at 45.17 million hectares (111.5 mac) with a yield of 48.4 bu/ac and a production of 146.8 million tons. The USDA estimates the acreage at 45.9 million hectares (113.3 mac) with a yield of 50.3 bu/ac and a production of 155.0 million tons. The Brazilian soybean yield in 2022/23 was 52.2 bu/ac.

Agroconsult's estimate is approximately 10 million tons higher than Conab for the 2023/24 growing season. They attribute 5.4 million tons to higher yields and 4.2 million tons to higher acreage. They also have a significantly higher estimate for the 2022/23 crop compared to Conab. Combining this season and last season, they are 17.4 million tons higher in soybean production compared to Conab.

A spokesperson for Agroconsult indicated that the higher estimates are a result of a change in methodology for analyzing satellite images and more attention paid to input purchases and local yield estimates.