May 15, 2024

Conab Increases Brazil Soy Estimate 1.16 mt, Corn Increased 0.68 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their May Crop report, Conab increased the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate 1.16 million tons to 147.68 million. The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was increased 0.68 million tons to 111.63 million.

Conab commented that crop losses from severe flooding in the state of Rio Grande do Sul has not been fully accounted for in the May report and that further revisions of the crop estimates may be forthcoming in future reports.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean acreage was increased 498,000 hectares (1.23 million acres) from last month to 45.73 million (112.96 million acres). The soybean acreage is up 3.8% compared to 2022/23. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,229 kg/ha (48.1 bu/ac), which is down 0.1 bu/ac compared to last month. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production at 147.6 million tons is down 4.5% or 6.92 million tons compared to 2022/23.

Brazil's total corn production is estimated at 111.63 million tons, which is down 15.4% or 14.72 million tons compared to 2022/23.

The acreage of Brazil's first corn crop was increased 22,000 hectares to 3.99 million (9.85 million acres) with a yield of 5,879 kg/ha (93.4 bu/ac) for a total production of 23.49 million tons, which is up 0.14 million tons from last month.

The safrinha corn acreage was increased 214,000 hectares from last month to 15.99 million (39.49 million acres). The safrinha yield is estimated at 5,388 kg/ha (85.6 bu/ac), which is down 0.6 bu/ac from April. Brazil's safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.15 million tons, which is up 0.54 million from April.

Brazil's first corn crop is responsible for 21% of Brazil's total corn production with the safrinha crop responsible for 77.1% and the third crop responsible for 1.8%.