May 15, 2024

2023/24 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 147.0 Million Tons

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rio Grande do Sul - Soybean production in the state of Rio Grande do Sul is the last big unknown for the 2023/24 soybean crop in Brazil. Prior to the heavy rains and flooding, the soybeans were satisfactory with an estimated statewide yield of 3,000 kg/ha (44.7 bu/ac), but that has now changed with about 22-24% of the soybeans left to harvest in the state.

Estimates of the soybean losses in the state range from 1 to 5 million tons (see prior article), but the final number will not be known until the season is complete. In addition to losses in the field, many storage units filled with grain were also damaged by the flooding.

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is estimating the 2023/24 soybean acreage in the state at 12.48 million hectares (30.8 million acres), which is up 2.94% compared to 2022/23.

The 2023/24 soybean yield in the state is estimated at 52.16 sacks per hectare (46.6 bu/ac), which is down 16.2% compared to 2022/23 and the lowest yield in 5 years. Hot and dry weather during the crop's development cut short the growth cycle resulting in lower yields.

With increased acreage but lower yields, the 2023/24 soybean production in Mato Grosso is estimated at 39.05 million tons, which is the lowest production in two years and 13.8% lower than 2022/23.

In the May WASDE Report, the USDA lowered the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate 1.0 million tons to 154.0 million citing the floods in Rio Grande do Sul. Conab is estimating the crop at 147.6 million tons. AgResource estimated that Rio Grande do Sul lost 1.32 million tons of soybeans due to the flooding and they are estimating the 2023/24 Brazil soybean production at 144.59 million tons.