May 21, 2024
U.S. Corn 70% Planted vs. 71% Average, Soy 52% vs. 49% Average
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Corn Planted - The 2024 U.S. corn was 70% planted as of Sunday compared to 76% last year and 71% average. This represents an advance of 21% for the week. Corn emergence is 40% compared to 46% last year and 39% average.
Warm and generally dry weather late last week and over the weekend allowed the corn planting to advance 21% last week and planting is now just 1% behind average. The most progress was registered in the northwestern Corn Belt where North Dakota is 15% ahead of average (51% vs. 36%), South Dakota is 7% ahead (66% vs. 59%), and Minnesota is 7% ahead (81% vs. 74%).
The states furthest behind average in corn planting are Iowa which is 8% behind average (78% vs. 86%), Missouri is 5% behind (76% vs. 81%), and Illinois is 4% behind (67% vs. 71%).
Corn Production - With 70% of the 2024 U.S. corn planted on May 19th, the question now is how many acres of corn will eventually be planted and what should be the starting yield for the 2024 U.S. corn crop? U.S. farmers made better than anticipated planting progress last week and the 2024 U.S. corn acreage continues to be estimated at 90.0 million acres with a neutral to slightly lower bias. The final corn acreage will be determined by the rainfall over the next two weeks.
It is probably a little too early to think about any significant prevent plant issues unless an area gets inundated with heavy rainfall this week. As a reference, the crop insurance final planting date for corn is approximately May 25th in much of the far northwestern Corn Belt, May 31st in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and June 5th in the eastern Corn Belt.
As far as the U.S. corn yield is concerned, it was left unchanged this week at 179.0 bu/ac with a neutral to slightly lower bias. The initial 2024 U.S. corn production was left unchanged this week at 14.71 billion bushels.
Soybeans Planted - Soybeans were 52% planted compared to 61% last year and 49% average. This represents an advance of 17% for the week. Soybean emergence is 26% compared to 31% last year and 21% average.
Farmers made good progress planting their soybeans last week and over the weekend with planting now 3% ahead of average. The states most ahead of average are Arkansas at 24% ahead of average (82% vs. 58%), Wisconsin is 10% ahead (57% vs. 47%), and North Dakota is 9% ahead (33% vs. 24%). The states most behind are Iowa at 6% behind average (61% vs. 67%), Nebraska is 6% behind (60% vs. 66%), and Michigan is 4% behind (42% vs. 46%).
Soybean Production - The soybean planted acreage continues to be estimated at 86.5 million acres with a neutral to slightly higher bias depending on what happens with the corn acreage.
It is too early to be discussing prevent plant for soybeans, but as a reference, the crop insurance final planting date for soybeans is approximately June 10th for most of the northwestern Corn Belt, June 15th for Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, and June 20th for much of the eastern Corn Belt.
It is also too early to contemplate a change in the initial soybean yield, which was left unchanged at 52.0 bu/ac. Soybean yields would only be negatively impacted if the planting is delayed until mid-June or later. The initial 2024 U.S. soybean production was left unchanged this week at 4.44 billion bushels.